Why Newer Model Years Often Have Fewer Complaints
Newer model years have had less time to accumulate complaints. In CarTold's checked dataset, many reports for older model years arrived well after the cars were first sold. That makes a low early count difficult to interpret. Dividing by years on market helps describe the difference, but it does not reveal a failure rate or predict how many complaints a newer model year will eventually receive.
Data checked Aug 10, 2026 · Updated Aug 11, 2026 · By Tom Smith · Methodology
Key findings
- For the 2016-2018 model years, an average of 17% of the complaints in this snapshot had arrived by the end of the following calendar year, 36% by three years after the model year, and 57% by five.
- The 2021 total was 64% lower than the 2018 total. The dataset does not separate the effect of age from sales, coverage or other differences.
- The oldest model year did not have the most reports: 2018 had more than 2016 or 2017.
- Annualizing the counts widened the 2018-to-2016 ratio from 1.38 to 1.73. Age adjustment does not make the totals directly comparable.
The evidence
| Model year | +1 year | +2 years | +3 years | +5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17% | 26% | 38% | 57% |
| 2017 | 14% | 25% | 34% | 54% |
| 2018 | 20% | 27% | 36% | 59% |
| 2019 | 23% | 33% | 43% | 73% |
| 2020 | 23% | 33% | 51% | 90% |
| 2021 | 25% | 39% | 56% | 100% |
The details
Read each row against its observation period. For the 2021 model year, the +5-year column reaches 100% because the snapshot ends during that interval. It does not mean reporting is complete. Even the older rows may receive more complaints after the cutoff.
The older cohorts show how much can arrive later. Averaged across 2016-2018, the shares were 17% by +1 year, 36% by +3 years and 57% by +5 years. These percentages describe reports already observed over a longer period. They cannot establish that a car at three years of age has collected a fixed share of its future complaints.
For the 2016 model year, reports by filing year were 918 in 2016, 733 in 2017, 797 in 2018, 1,138 in 2019, 934 in 2020, 915 in 2021, 964 in 2022, 991 in 2023, 833 in 2024 and 817 in 2025. Reports continued throughout that period rather than stopping after the first few years.
Age alone does not explain the ordering of the pooled totals. The 2016 model year had 9,537 complaints, compared with 11,695 for 2017 and 13,165 for 2018. The oldest year had the longest observation period but a smaller total.
Dividing by calendar years since the model year gives 953.7 complaints per year on market for 2016 and 1,645.6 for 2018. The 2018-to-2016 ratio is 1.73 after that division, compared with 1.38 for the raw counts. The calculation uses a larger denominator for the older year. It does not account for vehicle sales, usage or when reports tend to arrive.
The study did not test why 2018 had the highest total. Differences in the models covered, sales, designs and reporting patterns remain possible explanations. The Accord and Camry comparison provides model-specific context, but does not establish the cause of this pooled result.
What to check before buying
- Check the observation period. A low count soon after a model year goes on sale says little about reports that have not had time to arrive.
- Read both the count and its context. Note how old the model year is, which models are included and when the data was checked.
- Use annualized figures cautiously. They are average reports per calendar year, not complaints per vehicle or a forecast.
- Investigate specific symptoms. Read complaint details and related bulletins to prepare inspection questions. Our complaint-count guide explains how to use those records.
Limitations
The snapshot covers 15 models, with 14 represented in 2016 and 2021 and 15 in the intervening years. That uneven coverage affects comparisons. CarTold has no sales or registration data for this analysis, and pooling models can hide large differences between them.
Filing time is measured from the model year to the calendar year NHTSA received the complaint, not from an individual car's sale date or the date of the reported problem. The latest complaint in the snapshot is dated 2026-08-04, so the 2026 filing year is incomplete. No row represents a known lifetime complaint total.
Sources and methodology
This analysis uses the 2026-08-10 database snapshot: 54,954 NHTSA complaints across 15 models and model years 2016-2021. The timing calculations use records with a received date. For each model year, filing lag is the complaint's calendar year minus the model year; cumulative shares use the complaints observed for that cohort as the denominator.
Reports filed before the model year began were retained. The averages quoted for older cohorts use 2016-2018. Derived figures were checked with a separate arithmetic calculation. See data sources and methodology for the underlying records.
Related reports and tools
Sources
- National Highway Traffic Safety Administration -- Office of Defects Investigation complaints API
- See our methodology and data sources pages for how this report is built and its limitations.